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CONTENTS

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CHAPTER 1 - MEGATRENDS

CHAPTER 2 - GAME-CHANGERS

CHAPTER 3 - ALTERNATIVE WORLDS

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Global Trends 2030

ALTERNATIVE WORLDS

a publication of the National Intelligence Council

December 2012

NIC 2012-001

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Dear Reader:

Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds is the fifth installment in the National Intelligence Council's series aimed at providing a framework for thinking about the future. As with previous editions, we hope that this report will stimulate strategic thinking by identifying critical trends and potential discontinuities. We distinguish between megatrends, those factors that will likely occur under any scenario, and game-changers, critical variables whose trajectories are far less certain. Finally, as our appreciation of the diversity and complexity of various factors has grown, we have increased our attention to scenarios or alternative worlds we might face.

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