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The U.S. and world
economies are headed for massive inflation in the near future. At
least that’s what we predict. But what happens if we’re
EVG Research Team here. Let’s get something straight right off the bat.
There WILL be a major economic crisis in the near future. We’re predicting 6-36 months.
We think it will be very high inflation. Maybe even hyperinflation.
But there is another possibility. One group of contrarian investors think we’re heading for massive deflation ... and another Great Depression.
We’re very confident of our position on inflationary crisis. We invest most of our resources based on that scenario. But...
What happens if we’re wrong? What happens if we get deflation instead of inflation?
It would be foolish to ignore the possibility. Smart investors always prepare for every scenario.
Professional investors call it “hedging.” Other’s might call it “playing it safe.”
We prefer to call it “playing it smart.”
Even though it’s unlikely, deflation is possible for a variety of reasons.
One reason is that there are many inter-connected parts in worldwide economics. It’s gotten so complicated that sometimes unpredictable things happen.
The “New Math” of the New Economy
Suddenly 1+1 doesn’t equal 2 anymore. It might equal negative one. Or three.
The worst part is, no one knows why.
We’re not talking about some mystical voodoo here.
It’s just that economists base their predictions on things that have happened in the past.
For example, lowering interest rates in the past has usually encouraged people to spend money instead of save it. And more spending has always meant economic growth.
So their formula might be:
Lower Interest Rates + More Consumer Spending=Economic Growth.
Simple, right? 1+1=2.
But what happens if you lower interest rates and people don’t spend? Or what if people spend but it still doesn’t spur economic growth?
Well, then 1+1 doesn’t equal 2 anymore.
The old models fail. Or at least become less predictable.
That’s exactly where we are now in this new economy.
The US Fed has artificially kept interest rates incredibly low for several years now. They’ve promised to hold them down at least until 2014.
They’ve done it to spur growth.
Question is, has it worked?