Mike McKay

This is the only conclusion one can make upon the careful data analysis.
In the top-most banks, the exposures to the derivatives are many time over their liquid assets. In some banks – more than 300 times over! This is the next bubble which is going to burst, creating the next financial crisis, on proportions larger than both the Great Depression and the GFC of 2007-2008.
But the underlying mechanism is not so in the financial system. What will drive our Civilization down is the resource depletion. We have passed the global conventional oil production peak in 2006 (just 5 years after the Hubbert's prediction) and now quickly approaching two other important peaks: the gas / gas condensate and the unconventional oil production are both set to peak in the US before 2020 and world-wide – before 2030.
The reserves depletion is based on the laws of physics. The Nature is a kind judge, but if it gives you a sentence – there is no amnesty.

Let me put the things straight. By the Security Exchange Commission's definition, the conventional oil is the one that initially flows from the ground by itself, and does not require hydro-frac (AKA “fracking,”) pumping steam, digging open-cut pits, or similar environmentally-dangerous technologies. I have not seen any valid argument that the conventional oil production DID NOT peak before the end of 2006 (the actual month is December 2005.) In fact, the conventional oil production is declining anywhere between 1 and 3% per year, and this decline is accelerating. Even the EIA admits it now.
The “unconventional oil” (or “other liquids” as they put it in the BP statistics) is not actually “real oil.” It is a wonderful mix, across the board: gas condensate (by-product of the natural gas extraction, very light oil that cannot be cheaply converted into gasoline,) tar from tar sands (very heavy and dirty oil that also cannot be cheaply converted into gasoline,) the “tight” oil (that requires many tonnes of water and sand to be pumped underground before the production can even begin,) the "refinery gains" (oil volume expansion at the refinery - even oil industry executives have no idea why this one is added to the reserves,) and finally, ethanol, which is produced from the crops and results of the soil depletion across the USA and even in Brazil.
M.K. Hubbert, who predicted the “peak oil” in the 1950s, counted only the “conventional oil.” His estimate of the peak production world-wide was year 2000 +/- 5 years. The peak has been achieved in December 2005, done and dusted. The conventional oil production in the continental US has peaked in 1970, also in-line with Hubbert's analysis. Done and dusted too.
The statement that the USA will be exporting the "unconventional oil" by 2023 is no more than wishful thinking, honoured mainly by the politicians, but not geologists. We will get extremely lucky if we can supply 50% of the continental USA consumption from the local deposits through the next 10 years. The good news is that after 2050 the USA will be supplying 100% of the domestic consumption. The bad news is that this consumption will be something like 5% of the volumes we consume now. It is also in the book, by the way.